[Causes of death in the Moscow region according to medical death certificates]. / Prichiny smerti v Moskovskoi oblasti po dannym meditsinskikh svidetel'stv o smerti.

OBJECTIVE: Determination of the leading causes of death based on data from primary medical death certificates (MDCs) depending on the place of death. MATERIAL AND METHODS: From the electronic database of the Main Department of the Civil Registry Office of the Moscow Region (the USR registry office system) for 2021, all cases were selected in which diseases were indicated as the primary cause of death (PCD); all codes of external causes, injuries and poisonings were excluded. A total of 109.126 cases, 50.6% died in the hospital, 34% died at home, and 16.4% died elsewhere. Bureau of Forensic Medical Examination (BFME) issued 45.2% of MSS. Taking into account the frequency of use of ICD codes, the clinical similarity of individual codes, 20 groups were formed, which accounted for 90.1% of deaths from diseases. RESULTS: The frequency of registration of individual groups of causes of death largely depends on the place of death. 5 leading groups of causes of death were established: 1) in general from COVID-19 23.55%, chronic ischemic heart disease (CIHD-1) without postinfarction cardiosclerosis, aneurysm and ischemic cardiomyopathy (CMP) 14.5%, from encephalopathy indefinite (EI) 11.4%, malignant neoplasms (MN) 11.3%, stroke 6.2%; 2) in a hospital from COVID-19 45%, stroke 10%, MN 8.3%; CIHD-1 7.1%, CIHD with a history of MI/ischemic CMP 2.7%; 3) at home from CIHD-1 21.8%, EI 21.5%, MN 15.5%, from diseases associated with alcohol 3.3% and brain cyst 3.3%; 4) elsewhere from CIHD-1 22.7%, EI 21.6%, MN 12%, from other forms of acute coronary artery disease 5.4%, alcohol-associated diseases 4.8%. Acute MI ranked 6th among deaths in general - 2.7%. PCD is also associated with the place of issue of the MDCs - 90% of the MDC with the indication of EI and «other degenerative diseases of the nervous system¼ as the cause of death were issued by the BFME. Not a single MDC issued by the BFME contained such PCDs as "old age" or "brain cyst". CONCLUSION: The nosological structure of the causes of death and the issuance of individual ICD codes in the MDC as a PCD varies significantly depending on the place of death and the issuance of the MDC. The reasons need to be further clarified. The use of codes that are not permitted for use has been registered.

[Methodological proposal for evaluation of death records from COVID-19]. / Proposta metodológica para avaliação de registros de óbitos por COVID-19.

The limitation of studies on the coverage and completeness of death records is one of the main problems regarding vital statistics in Brazil. In 2020, the number of information systems on death records in Brazil increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic, generating more uncertainties about the quality of death records. This study proposed an evaluation of the quality of death records due to COVID-19. Three methodological stages were considered: estimation of deaths under-registration; redistribution of deaths from nonspecific causes (Garbage Codes), and redistribution of deaths from ill-defined causes to COVID-19 data. The proposal was applied in the State of Paraíba, Brazil, and its municipalities in 2020, by using the official records of the Brazilian Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. In total, 1,281 deaths were retrieved, besides the 3,426 deaths officially recorded for Paraíba State, an increase of 37.4% in deaths from COVID-19. The proposal was effective, easy to apply, and can be used by managers of governmental spheres and people interested in it as a tool to assess the quality of death records for any geographic space, thus, contributing to a better understanding of the real effect of the pandemic.

A limitação de estudos sobre a cobertura e completude dos registros de óbitos está entre os principais problemas relacionados às estatísticas vitais no Brasil. Com o advento da pandemia de COVID-19, em 2020, houve um aumento na quantidade de sistemas de informação sobre os registros de óbitos no Brasil, gerando mais incertezas quanto à qualidade dos registros de óbitos. Este estudo propôs uma metodologia de avaliação da qualidade dos registros de óbitos por COVID-19. Foram consideradas três etapas metodológicas: estimação do sub-registro de óbitos; redistribuição de óbitos por causas inespecíficas (Códigos Garbage) e redistribuição de óbitos por causas mal definidas para dados da COVID-19. A proposta foi aplicada para o Estado da Paraíba, Brasil, e seus municípios para 2020, com o uso dos registros oficiais do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde. No total, foram recuperados 1.281 óbitos por COVID-19 além dos 3.426 registrados oficialmente para a Paraíba, um incremento de 37,4%. A proposta mostrou-se efetiva e de fácil aplicação, podendo ser utilizada pelos gestores das esferas governamentais e interessados como ferramenta de avaliação da qualidade dos registros de óbitos para qualquer espaço geográfico, contribuindo, assim, para uma melhor compreensão do real impacto da pandemia.

La limitación de los estudios sobre la cobertura y la integralidad de los registros de defunción es uno de los principales problemas relacionados con las estadísticas vitales en Brasil. Con la llegada de la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2020 hubo un aumento en la cantidad de sistemas de información sobre registros de defunción en Brasil, generando más incertidumbres sobre la calidad de los registros de defunción. Este estudio propone una metodología para evaluar la calidad de los registros de defunción por COVID-19. Se consideraron tres pasos metodológicos: estimación del subregistro de defunciones; redistribución de las defunciones por causas no específicas (Garbage Codes) y redistribución de las defunciones por causas mal definidas para los datos del COVID-19. La propuesta fue aplicada al Estado de Paraíba, Brasil y sus municipios para el año 2020 utilizando los registros oficiales del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad del Ministerio de Salud. En total, se identificaron 1.281 muertes, además de las 3.426 registradas oficialmente en Paraíba, lo que representa un aumento del 37,4% en las muertes por COVID-19. La propuesta demostró ser eficaz y fácil de aplicar, y puede ser utilizada por los gestores gubernamentales y las partes interesadas como herramienta para evaluar la calidad de los registros de defunción de cualquier zona geográfica, contribuyendo así a una mejor comprensión del impacto real de la pandemia.

Cremation Permit Review and COVID-19 Death Certificates.

ABSTRACT: Data derived from death certificates (DCs) is an important resource for mortality statistics, disease surveillance, and the creation of public health policies. This study involved the review of COVID-19 DCs occurring during the normal course of DC review for cremation approval purposes in a medical examiner office. During the review process since the occurrence of the pandemic, it was noticed that a significant percentage of COVID-19 DCs being reviewed did not include any comorbid conditions as contributing to death, despite reports, both within the medical literature and within the media, that suggested that most deaths occur in people with known risk factors. The study involved medical record review for COVID-19 DCs that did not list any comorbid conditions. The results indicated that a vast majority of such cases did, in fact, have significant comorbid conditions, such that they should have been listed on the DCs.

The Young were not Spared: What Death Certificates Reveal about Non-Covid Excess Deaths.

From April 2020 through at least the end of 2021, Americans died from non-Covid causes at an average annual rate of 97 000 in excess of previous trends. Hypertension and heart disease deaths combined were elevated 32 000. Diabetes or obesity, drug-induced causes, and alcohol-induced causes were each elevated 12 000 to 15 000 above previous (upward) trends. Drug deaths especially followed an alarming trend, only to significantly exceed it during the pandemic to reach 108 000 for calendar year 2021. Homicide and motor-vehicle fatalities combined were elevated almost 10 000. Various other causes combined to add 18 000. While Covid deaths overwhelmingly afflict senior citizens, absolute numbers of non-Covid excess deaths are similar for each of the 18 to 44, 45 to 64, and over-65 age groups, with essentially no aggregate excess deaths of children. Mortality from all causes during the pandemic was elevated 26% for working-age adults (18-64), as compared to 18% for the elderly. Other data on drug addictions, non-fatal shootings, weight gain, and cancer screenings point to a historic, yet largely unacknowledged, health emergency.

[Identifying deaths due to or involving COVID-19 in absence of the death certificate]. / Identificare i decessi riconducibili al COVID-19 in assenza del certificato di morte.

BACKGROUND: during 2020, Italy was one of the first nation hit by SARS-CoV-2, but it was not the hardest-hit country in terms of deaths. In absence of the death certificate, the burden of COVID-19 on mortality is usually calculated from overall deaths or from deaths of patients tested positive for COVID-19. However, these measures do not express the real burden of the disease on the population. OBJECTIVES: identify deaths due to or involving COVID-19 in absence of the death certificates. DESIGN: deaths for all causes, cause-specific deaths, COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 confirmed cases between 01.01.2020 and 31.12.2021 observed in subjects residing in the territory of the ATS of Milan. Potential deaths due to or involving COVID-19 as those occurring in an optimal time period between the date of death and the date of positive swab and/or COVID-19 hospitalization, were identified. Optimal time period was defined maximizing sensitivity and specificity, comparing potential COVID-19 deaths with 2020 cause-specific mortality as gold standard, stratifying results by time of deaths, age, and number of comorbidities. Then, this method was further validated using a time-series approach to estimate the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in comparison with the pre-outbreak period 2015-2019. Accuracy of predictions was evaluated with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 78,202 deaths for all causes, of which 8,815 due to or involving COVID-19 as classified by the Milan Register of Death Causes for 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: from the beginning of the epidemic, 30% (23,495) died in the first semester of 2020, 26% (19,988) in the second semester of 2020, 23% (18,189) in the first semester of 2021, and 21% (16,530) in the second semester of 2021. COVID-19 hospitalizations were 13.826 (17%), while confirmed COVID-19 cases were 17,548 (22%). The optimal time intervals capable to identify a potential death due to or involving COVID-19 were 0-61 between the date of death and the date of positive swab and 0-11 between the date of death and the date of COVID-19 hospitalization, with an overall sensitivity of 90%, a specificity of 95%, and a RMSE of 3.6. Comparing the method proposed with the time-series approach, a RMSE in 2021 of 15.8 was found. Results showed different optimal time intervals for 2021 vs 2020 and by years of age and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: this study found that deaths due to or involving COVID-19 could be sensitively identified from the date of positive swab and/or COVID-19 hospitalization. This method can be used for public health interventions which provided so far measures in terms of total deaths instead of real numbers of COVID-19 death, in particular those involving the effective reproduction number usually calculated from overall mortality.

Proper death certification in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: Forensic perspective.

It is well known that the quality of death certificates determines the accuracy of public health mortality data. In the light of a pandemic, forensic pathologists must understand the true definition of a COVID-19 death and the requirements for filling out the death certificate, as these are critical for maintaining accurate and trustworthy mortality data. To determine the scope and evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic, accurate death certification is critical. We believe that COVID-19 should be enlisted under part II or section "note" (if it exists in DC form in a particular country) of the DC in all suicide instances and putrefied bodies with positive autopsy swabs for SARS-CoV-2. In addition to our suggestions for the completion of the DC in some COVID-19 instances, we feel that forensic pathologists should follow the WHO criteria for proper DC completion in COVID-19 cases. Better physician education at this stage of the pandemic would increase adherence to existing (WHO and CDC) standards. As a result, forensic pathologists with competence in death certification could help by teaching treating physicians in this area.

Parkinson's disease related mortality: Long-term trends and impact of COVID-19 pandemic waves.

INTRODUCTION: Parkinson's disease (PD) mortality burden is increasing worldwide, but accurate estimates on the magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are missing. Mortality rates vary largely when considering PD as underlying cause of death (UCOD), or as one among multiple causes reported in death certificates (MCOD). The aim of this study is to assess COVID-19 impact on PD-related mortality trends using the UCOD and MCOD approach. METHODS: Mortality records between 01/2008-12/2020 of residents aged ≥45 years in Veneto Region (Northeastern Italy) with any mention of PD were collected. Age-standardized sex-specific mortality rates were estimated for PD-related deaths as UCOD and MCOD to assess time trends. The average annual percentage change in age-standardized rates (AAPC) was estimated by linear regression models. Monthly mortality in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, was plotted against the 2018-2019 average. RESULTS: Overall, 13,746 PD-related deaths (2.3% of all deaths) were identified, 52% males, median age 84 years. Proportional mortality increased from 1.9% (2008) to 2.8% (2020). AAPC through 2008-2019 was +5.2% for males and +5.3% for females in analyses of the UCOD, and +1.4% in both genders based on MCOD. Excess in PD-related mortality during 2020 corresponded to 19% for UCOD and 28% for MCOD, with the latter showing two peaks corresponding to the first (28%) and second (59%) pandemic waves. CONCLUSION: Age-standardized PD-related mortality rates have steeply increased during COVID-19 pandemic, amplifying a pre-existing long-term trend. Hence, surveillance of mortality associated to PD is warranted in the forthcoming pandemic and post-pandemic years.

Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden.

Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated.

Characteristics of deceased and quality of death certificates for cases subjected to Indonesia's management of the dead protocol for bodies with COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted many aspects of life, including death care. International and national protocols have been implemented for the management of the dead. This study aims to determine the characteristics of decedents managed according to COVID-19 protocols in Indonesia and the quality of their death certificates. This study uses a descriptive, cross-sectional design. Secondary data of deaths with COVID-19 were taken from hospital death registries, medical records, and death certificates. Data were collected from nine referral hospitals and one funeral home in 6 cities in Indonesia. The majority of the decedents were male, Muslim, with a median age of 57. Most were treated in non-intensive isolation wards, and almost half had known comorbidities. Many were still awaiting the result of their confirmative PCR at the time of death. Almost all were managed compliant with the standard protocol, and most were buried in COVID-only cemeteries. There were still deficiencies in the completeness and accuracy of the death certificates. "COVID-19" was mentioned as a cause of death in only about half of the cases, with a wide variety of terms and spelling. Management of the dead protocols for bodies with COVID-19 can generally be implemented in Indonesia. The quality of the death certificates should, however, be continuously improved.

Unexplained mortality during the US COVID-19 pandemic: retrospective analysis of death certificate data and critical assessment of excess death calculations.

OBJECTIVES: Cause-of-death discrepancies are common in respiratory illness-related mortality. A standard epidemiological metric, excess all-cause death, is unaffected by these discrepancies but provides no actionable policy information when increased all-cause mortality is unexplained by reported specific causes. To assess the contribution of unexplained mortality to the excess death metric, we parsed excess deaths in the COVID-19 pandemic into changes in explained versus unexplained (unreported or unspecified) causes. DESIGN: Retrospective repeated cross-sectional analysis, US death certificate data for six influenza seasons beginning October 2014, comparing population-adjusted historical benchmarks from the previous two, three and five seasons with 2019-2020. SETTING: 48 of 50 states with complete data. PARTICIPANTS: 16.3 million deaths in 312 weeks, reported in categories-all causes, top eight natural causes and respiratory causes including COVID-19. OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in population-adjusted counts of deaths from seasonal benchmarks to 2019-2020, from all causes (ie, total excess deaths) and from explained versus unexplained causes, reported for the season overall and for time periods defined a priori: pandemic awareness (19 January through 28 March); initial pandemic peak (29 March through 30 May) and pandemic post-peak (31 May through 26 September). RESULTS: Depending on seasonal benchmark, 287 957-306 267 excess deaths occurred through September 2020: 179 903 (58.7%-62.5%) attributed to COVID-19; 44 022-49 311 (15.2%-16.1%) to other reported causes; 64 032-77 054 (22.2%-25.2%) unexplained (unspecified or unreported cause). Unexplained deaths constituted 65.2%-72.5% of excess deaths from 19 January to 28 March and 14.1%-16.1% from 29 March through 30 May. CONCLUSIONS: Unexplained mortality contributed substantially to US pandemic period excess deaths. Onset of unexplained mortality in February 2020 coincided with previously reported increases in psychotropic use, suggesting possible psychiatric or injurious causes. Because underlying causes of unexplained deaths may vary by group or region, results suggest excess death calculations provide limited actionable information, supporting previous calls for improved cause-of-death data to support evidence-based policy.

Reliably quantifying the evolving worldwide dynamic state of the COVID-19 outbreak from death records, clinical parametrization, and demographic data.

The dynamic characterization of the COVID-19 outbreak is critical to implement effective actions for its control and eradication but the information available at a global scale is not sufficiently reliable to be used directly. Here, we develop a quantitative approach to reliably quantify its temporal evolution and controllability through the integration of multiple data sources, including death records, clinical parametrization of the disease, and demographic data, and we explicitly apply it to countries worldwide, covering 97.4% of the human population, and to states within the United States (US). The validation of the approach shows that it can accurately reproduce the available prevalence data and that it can precisely infer the timing of nonpharmaceutical interventions. The results of the analysis identified general patterns of recession, stabilization, and resurgence. The diversity of dynamic behaviors of the outbreak across countries is paralleled by those of states and territories in the US, converging to remarkably similar global states in both cases. Our results offer precise insights into the dynamics of the outbreak and an efficient avenue for the estimation of the prevalence rates over time.

Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Guatemala.

Objectives. To describe excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guatemala during 2020 by week, age, sex, and place of death. Methods. We used mortality data from 2015 to 2020, gathered through the vital registration system of Guatemala. We calculated weekly mortality rates, overall and stratified by age, sex, and place of death. We fitted a generalized additive model to calculate excess deaths, adjusting for seasonality and secular trends and compared excess deaths to the official COVID-19 mortality count. Results. We found an initial decline of 26% in mortality rates during the first weeks of the pandemic in 2020, compared with 2015 to 2019. These declines were sustained through October 2020 for the population younger than 20 years and for deaths in public spaces and returned to normal from July onward in the population aged 20 to 39 years. We found a peak of 73% excess mortality in mid-July, especially in the population aged 40 years or older. We estimated a total of 8036 excess deaths (95% confidence interval = 7935, 8137) in 2020, 46% higher than the official COVID-19 mortality count. Conclusions. The extent of this health crisis is underestimated when COVID-19 confirmed death counts are used. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10): 1839-1846. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306452).

[COVID-19- and influenza-associated deaths in Munich as of March 2020-a standardized analysis of death certificates]. / COVID-19- und influenzaassoziierte Sterbefälle in München ab März 2020 ­ eine standardisierte Auswertung von Todesbescheinigungen.

INTRODUCTION: In light of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the idea arose to conduct a study to comparatively evaluate deaths from two respiratory transmissible infectious diseases (pandemic COVID-19 and seasonal influenza) by means of death certificates received by the health department. METHODS: Death certificates of all deaths in Munich in the death period from 1 March-31 December 2020 were analyzed. The predefined inclusion criteria were the indication of "Corona, COVID-19, SARS-CoV­2, Influenza (A/B)" on the death certificates. Standardized data entry was performed. The collected data were analyzed descriptively in aggregated form. RESULTS: A total of 12,441 persons died during the study period, 1029 (8.3%) from confirmed COVID-19 and 22 (0.1%) from influenza. The two collectives matched well in the parameters studied. The mean age at death was approximately 80 years and the most common site of death was in hospital. Infectious disease was the cause of death in more than 90% of cases. The most common causes of death were acute respiratory distress syndrome/respiratory failure and multiorgan failure. An average of two previous illnesses were reported, most commonly diseases of the circulatory system and nervous system. There was no influenza death in the second pandemic wave. DISCUSSION: In this study, COVID-19- and influenza-associated deaths were compared for the first time. The deaths of both collectives matched well in the parameters studied, but still require verification in a larger study given the small numbers of influenza cases. An English full-text version of this article is available at SpringerLink as Supplementary Information.

The COVID-19 pandemic and cause of death.

This article explores the emergence and development of Death Certificates as a means of establishing the cause of death for individuals and populations. The difficulty in choosing which disease caused death when several are described on the Certificate explains why the number of COVID-19-related deaths has been difficult to determine. This problem also draws attention to the dominant biomedical explanation for the cause of death that both promote and circumscribe what can be recognised as a valid cause.

Different approaches to the analysis of causes of death during the COVID-19 epidemic.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on causes of mortality through multiple methodological approaches. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The causes of mortality in the Veneto region (Italy) during the first epidemic wave, March-April 2020, were compared with the corresponding months of the previous two years. Both the underlying cause of death (UCOD), and all diseases reported in the death certificate (multiple causes of death) were investigated; a further analysis was carried out through a simulation where the UCOD was selected after substituting ICD-10 codes for COVID with unspecified pneumonia. RESULTS: Overall 10,222 deaths were registered in March-April 2020, corresponding to a 24% increase compared to the previous two years. COVID-19 was mentioned in 1,444 certificates, and selected as the UCOD in 1,207 deaths. Based on the UCOD, the increases in mortality were observed for COVID and related respiratory conditions, diabetes mellitus, hypertensive heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and ill-defined causes. Multiple causes of death and the simulation analysis demonstrated further increases in mortality related to dementia/Alzheimer and chronic lower respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: This first report demonstrates an increase of several causes of death during the pandemic, underlying the need of a continuous surveillance of mortality records through different analytic strategies.

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Effects on Civil Registration of Births and Deaths and on Availability and Utility of Vital Events Data.

The complex and evolving picture of COVID-19-related mortality highlights the need for data to guide the response. Yet many countries are struggling to maintain their data systems, including the civil registration system, which is the foundation for detailed and continuously available mortality statistics. We conducted a search of country and development agency Web sites and partner and media reports describing disruptions to the civil registration of births and deaths associated with COVID-19 related restrictions.We found considerable intercountry variation and grouped countries according to the level of disruption to birth and particularly death registration. Only a minority of the 66 countries were able to maintain service continuity during the COVID-19 restrictions. In the majority, a combination of legal and operational challenges resulted in declines in birth and death registration. Few countries established business continuity plans or developed strategies to deal with the backlog when restrictions are lifted.Civil registration systems and the vital statistics they generate must be strengthened as essential services during health emergencies and as core components of the response to COVID-19.